Exodus will be double the prediction
June 05, 2008
THE flight from private health cover will be double that predicted by the Rudd Government.
In a major embarrassment for the Government, Treasury admitted failing to count children when calculating the new Medicare changes' impact.
The blunder means at least 700,000 people - not 484,000, as stated - are expected to leave the private system.
In a further blow, Australia's biggest insurer, Medibank Private, expects to lose 7-10 per cent of its members under new Medicare surcharge thresholds.
If this occurred across the system, nearly a million insured people would opt to rely entirely on the public system.
Medibank Private chief financial officer Michael Sammells told a Senate committee that those expected to dump their cover were highly valued members - the young and fit, and those with expensive policies.
The insurer, like all industry players, is desperately trying to work out a new premium structure to ensure the fund remains viable.
"What the business is doing right now is saying, 'based on a new set of assumptions, what are the range of things we are going to do in our business to mitigate that impact?' And that will be evident in our corporate plan," he said.
Mr Sammells said the fund would submit details of planned premium rises to the Government by July 11.
Under the Government's Medicare changes, uninsured families and singles will be able to earn more before being penalised.
The Medicare surcharge threshold will rise from $100,000 to $150,000 for families and $50,000 to $100,000 for singles.
Under questioning yesterday, Treasury official Nigel Ray was unable to say how many children and teens would no longer be covered by private health insurance.
But applying private health industry figures to Treasury's calculations, more than 716,000 people would leave the private system.
Australian Medical Association president Dr Rosanna Capolingua said the changes would hurt people the Government wanted most to protect.
"Those who cannot afford insurance, their access to public hospitals is jeopardised by all those who will fall into the waiting queue," she said.
Health Minister Nicola Roxon said there was no problem with Treasury's figures.
"Treasury's job was to work out the Budget implications of the policy. So, of course, Treasury focused on taxpayers, (those) who pay the surcharge or receive the private health insurance rebate," she said.
"The real pressure on hospitals comes from the $1 billion the Liberal government cut from public hospitals, and its failure to invest in health."
References : http://www.news.com.au |
